Co-founders Sean Geraghty and Mike Goldstein compiled the best available data on five indicators to predict teen life in 2036. They extended existing trend lines with two sets of predictions, finding they have “cheerfully divergent views” on where the data is headed.
Screen time remains a central concern. According to the National Survey of Children’s Health, about two in five teenagers ages 13 to 17 spend four or more hours on screens for recreation on most weekdays. A CDC analysis finds associations between high screen use and anxiety and depression. The authors predict a decline in these numbers, though the drivers remain debated. Sean expects the share to fall to 35 percent, while Mike predicts it will drop to 30 percent.
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The decline in teen labor force participation has been a decades-long trend. Although participation has remained stable since about 2010, Mike predicts it will resume its decline, falling to 25 percent by 2036. Two forces will push this number down. First, as AI shrinks entry-level work, displaced adults will compete for jobs teenagers used to get.
Sleep habits show a worrying trend. The share of 12th graders who say they get at least seven hours of sleep most days has fallen, with less than half of high school seniors currently meeting this threshold. Sean expects this share to tick back up to 50 percent by 2036 as screen time declines and cultural norms shift. Mike is less optimistic, expecting the share to slip to 40 percent. He argues that with fewer teens working jobs or playing sports, and the rise of AI products designed to keep users awake, sleep habits will likely worsen.
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In-person time with friends has plummeted over the last 20 years. Some argue this decline is misleading because socializing now happens digitally. The authors remain skeptical of a 2025 rebound shown in data, noting that the sample was limited by a government shutdown and likely inflated by holiday break data. They predict in-person time will fall back down to roughly 50 minutes per day in 2026. By 2036, Sean expects a partial rebound to 80 minutes a day, while Mike predicts a larger recovery to 120 minutes a day.
